MBS RECAP: Curse Broken? Bonds Waiting on Data to Confirm

Bond markets found their first green day since June 27th today and for no particular reason apart from today being the first full trading day in July.  That assertion comes courtesy of the volume and volatility seen during the various opening and closing times for stocks and bonds.

First up, we had the 3am European bond open which brought US yields right up to the ceiling seen on Monday afternoon.  After a modest bounce, the 8:20am CME open pushed rates right back to the ceiling.  At 9:30am, stocks got involved (including bond market ETFs), and rates embarked on their best rally of the day.

There was arguably some help along the way from weaker Factory Orders data, but that’s a “maybe,” whereas a tradeflow-based move is definitely a pervasive ingredient in today’s trading.  The tradeflow motivation was confirmed as bonds serendipitously rallied heading into the 3pm CME close after looking pessimistic in the wake of the 2pm Fed minutes.

From here, we turn to 2 days of potentially important economic data to confirm or reject this nice little bout of bond market defiance.  Friday is the bigger day with NFP at 8:30am, but tomorrow has ISM non-Manufacturing at 10am.

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.